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如何平衡国际货币关系-以中美结算办法为例

发表时间:2021/1/22 21:47:48  浏览次数:549  
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不懂专业词汇,自知翻译误差很大,高手路过请指出。
Policy Research Working Paper 5188
An Institutional Approach
to Balancing International Monetary Relations
The Case for a US-China Settlement Facility
Nadia F. Piffaretti
Sergio Rossi
The World Bank
Development Economics Vice Presidency
January 2010
(不断更新修改中)
…… The key feature of Keynes’ plan was a mechanism of quotas and incentives to encourage surplus countries to spend their net earnings from foreign trade on imports from any deficit countries, instead of allowing these earnings to accumulate as external saving financing internal imbalances in deficit countries. The operational goal of the proposed international facility was “the clearing and settlement of the ultimate outstanding balances between central banks” (Keynes 1980: 125), each of them acting on behalf of its own country for the settlement of foreign trade transactions. Within the framework of the current modern payment systems’ mechanisms that operate domestically on a real-time gross-settlement basis, this amounts to setting up an international settlement institution issuing the means of final payment used by central banks for foreign transactions of participating countries. The use of this means of final payment would be reserved to settlement between participating central banks of any international transactions. Any amounts of bancor being issued for and circulating between central banks only – within the international settlement facility through which participating central banks would be connected – the bancor would not circulate for payments between private parties, remaining thereby out of reach for foreign-exchange market transactions involving “private individuals, businesses and banks other than central banks” (Keynes 1980: 168). Transactions among individual agents would continue to be carried out in any national currencies of choice, with the official exchange rates established between the national central banks participating to the international settlement facility providing a benchmark towards which exchange rates established on foreign-exchange markets will tend as a result of the incentives within the international settlement facility. The arbitrage process will notably make sure that a growing share of foreign trade is paid through the international settlement facility – granting exchange-rates stability (see Rossi 2009) – thereby reducing the influence on exchange rates from foreign-exchange markets as time goes by.
It is the legacy of Keynes’ idea of asking an international monetary institution to issue supranational bank money for the settlement of foreign trade transactions between national central banks that inspired in 1967 delegates at the annual meeting of the IMF to set up the Special Drawing Right (SDR) facility. Yet, SDRs were not conceived as new supranational means of payment, but as a conduit to a number of national currencies within a basket named after the SDR. Most importantly, the introduction of the SDR has not been associated with the symmetrical set of incentives for rebalancing which constitutes a central feature of Keynes’ plan.
A reform of the international monetary architecture through SDRs would in fact require a change in their nature and issuance mechanism. Currently issued by ad hoc one-off allocations to supplement the needs for foreign-exchange reserves of IMF member countries, to date SDRs do not represent liabilities of the IMF: they are simply a right for any deficit countries to borrow multilaterally a number of deposits denominated in national (key) currencies, which therefore continue to be used as international reserve assets as pointed out above.
3. An SDR’s Renewal?
Recently, SDRs have received much renewed attention, in particular after authoritative PBoC’s Governor Zhou (2009) called for a supranational reserve currency, and prospected a new role for SDRs in the post-crisis international monetary architecture. The resurgence of interest in SDRs has given rise to markedly diverse proposals for SDRs reforms, each aimed at addressing different shortcomings of the current system, namely (i) action on the demand side, (ii) insurance against exchange-rates risk, and (iii) creation of a global derivative to substitute demand of US dollar-denominated assets.
…… Keynes计划的主要特点是它的配额和激励机制,这一机制促使顺差国将外贸净得收入用来从逆差国进口货物,而不是让这部分所得积累起来作为逆差国内部收支失衡的外部储蓄基金。K提出的国际便利措施的运作目标是代表各自国家结算外贸交易的中央银行间最佳差额的结算与交收。当前,现代支付系统机制在国内以实时总额结算为基础。在这种情况下,这项措施等于是建立一个国际结算机构/制度,推出中央银行在进行参与国间对外交易的最终付款方式。这种付款方式可以用于参与任何国际贸易的中央银行间的结算。不管在中央银行间有多少货币被发行或在流通(成员央行通过国际清算便利措施联成一体),货币都不会用于个体的支付用途,也就是说,涉及除央行外的个人、企业和银行的外汇市场交易都在这种货币应用范围之外。个人代理商之间的交易仍然通过可供选择的本国货币开展,而官方汇率由国际结算设施成员央行决定,此设施通过其激励措施为外汇市场提供一个汇率参考基准。这个套汇过程尤其确保了不断增长的外贸份额通过国际结算设施得以支付,从而保证了汇率的稳定性,日后也将降低外汇市场对汇率的影响。
K构想建立一个国际货币机构来发行超国家银行货币来解决各国央行外贸交易结算问题。正是这一思想的宝贵经验促使1967年IMF年会代表建立SDR措施。然而,当时SDRs不是作为一种新的全球支付方式提出来的,而是作为依SDR命名的组织内多国货币的一种转换中介。最重要的是,SDR的引入还没有和构成K计划主要特点关联,即为重新达到收支平衡所采取的一套系统的激励措施。
通过SDRs改革国际货币体系实际上要求改变国际货币本质及其发行机制。到目前为止,通过专门的一次性分配发布的、用以填补IMF成员国外汇储备需求的SDRs不能够代表IMF的债务,它们只是逆差国向多国货币储备金借款的权利,因此如上文指出,还是被用作国际储备资产。
3. SDR在复兴?
近年来,SDRs重新受到人们的关注,特别是在2009年以后。那年,权威人士中国人民银行周行长呼吁发行超国家储备货币之后,并展望了SDRs在后危机国际货币体系中发挥的新作用。随着对SDRs兴趣的再起,人们提出了关于SDRs改革的各种迥异的建议。这些建议直指现行体制的种种不足:1、 需求方采取的行动,2、汇率风险保险,3、制造一种全球货币以取代对美元记数资产的需求。


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